Blog

Notes on prediction markets

Will Bitcoin close above $100k this week?

A concrete, near-term, externally verifiable prediction market — live on the page.

The most valuable spot isn't the market — it's the moment you read something and think “I'd bet on that.”

Everyone is obsessed with the wrong bottleneck. The real constraint isn't liquidity — it's distribution.

We thought the problem was conversation. The users showed us the right one.